Five reasons why Europe cracks
José Ignacio Torreblanca
The crisis of values, the confidence, the euro, the policy exterior and leadership: a few times in its history the European project has been so in entredicho.Dinamarca reintroduced border controls under the guise of a crime nonexistent. With this, the country was a model of democracy, tolerance and social justice is at the forefront of European surrender to fear and xenophobia. Greece has more than a year to the edge without seeming to be many governments to mourn his eventual exit from the euro area, some even secretly stoke markets against Athens. Finland resisted until the last minute, behind Slovakia, to finance the rescue of Portugal. France and Italy take advantage of the Tunisian crisis in election period, limiting the freedom of movement within the European Union. And what about Germany, not content with managing the crisis in the euro to hit regional elections, breaks ranks with France and the United Kingdom in the Security Council United Nations, it disregards the Libyan crisis and busting ten years of European security policy.
European leaders govern coup polls and elections, although it surprised rid Europe Today
remember the admiration and even raised the fear that Europe ten years ago between major powers
Like a cancer, the xenophobes have been capturing discourse and the political agenda in all States foreign
aversion leads to the Europeans to commit suicide not only moral but economic
adjustments and cuts associated with the current bailouts worsen the crisis faced by some countries
this continues, the EU will end up being what was once the IMF for many: an instrument of taxation
With the euro's future into question and the Arab world to erupt, European leaders govern hit Surveys and elections, clinging to power by any means, even if it means having to undo the Europe that so much time and sacrifice it cost to build. Rarely has the European project has been so compromised and so publicly exposed their genitals. It seems that in this Europe of today, have a big party was forced xenophobic. The fact is that Europe cracks. In the absence of a radical change, the integration process could collapse, leaving the air the future of Europe as an economic and politically relevant.
1. A project without bellows
This crisis is temporary and transitory: this is not a bad run, or are victims of unfounded pessimism. To realize how far the integration project is in danger not rewind it takes more than a decade. If we did, the contrast with the current situation could not be more revealing. After launching the euro on January 1, 1999, the European Union approved the Lisbon Strategy, which promised to make the EU the most dynamic, competitive and sustainable economy. Also committed to expand the area of \u200b\u200bfreedom, security and justice, European integration leading to the police, judicial and immigration, which until then had been left out of European construction. And to complete this process and give itself a real political union that would allow it to be a significant global player in the world of the twenty-first century, set in motion the process of drafting the European Constitution.
But the EU is not completed only inside but also out: launching the most ambitious enlargement process of history, incorporating into its ranks 10 countries in Central and Eastern Europe plus Cyprus and Malta and, in an act full strategic vision and future, agreed to open accession negotiations with Turkey, thereby tending bridges of maximum value with the Arab and Muslim world. At the same time lay the foundations of a genuine common foreign and security: after years of helplessness and humiliation in the small Bosnian, French and British agreed to coordinate their defense more closely. Meanwhile, Europeans are united, including Germany, to a halt Milosevic's attempts to ethnically cleanse Kosovo and pledged to set up a rapid reaction force of 60,000 soldiers who were capable of being deployed outside the European act in crisis management missions and peacekeeping. Used today by the major powers ninguneo remember how surprised, then, with the euro in hand, the extensions in place, a constitution just around the corner and a common foreign and security filled with the leadership provided by Javier Solana, Europe did not cause boredom or indifference, but admiration, and even in Washington, Beijing or Moscow, undisguised suspicion.
A decade later, this brilliant list of achievements and promises is more optimistic in question: for the successful European and world we promised, we have a Europe that despite the extensions has diminished, and that although the euro has become selfish and unsupportive and that has ceased to believe and practice their values \u200b\u200bto lock in the fear of foreigners and fear of loss of identity. Many regret having made the extensions and do not want to hear about them, or raise fulfill the promise of membership to Turkey and are not even able to glimpse the accession of the Balkan countries. More than twenty years since the fall of the Berlin Wall are a time frame more than reasonable for Europe was complete, inside and out. But the reality is quite different: after the expansion, we are talking about enlargement fatigue; after the failed constitutional process, fatigue political integration after the crisis of the euro, economic and financial fatigue. After ten years of institutional reforms and institutional introspection, the Lisbon Treaty, which was to save Europe from the paralysis and place it in the twenty first century is a perfect stranger and achievements invisible.
2. Crisis of political myopia valoresy
The seriousness of the current European crisis arises from the confluence of several centrifugal forces: the rise of xenophobia, the crisis of the euro, the deficit of foreign policy and lack of leadership. His themes are parallel but intersect dangerously same denominator common: the absence of a long-term. The result is that each difference between partners, whether the character is, it becomes a zero sum game, in a fierce fight where anything goes as long as a victory to brag with once back in national capital for small and harmful to the common plan is.
now almost three years ago that the smoke that burned Gypsy camps in Italy put us on notice of what was coming. Since then, election after election, the xenophobes have been gaining strength in new countries (Sweden, Finland, United Kingdom, Hungary) and consolidated at the sites where it already had a significant presence (Italy, France, Netherlands, Denmark). Like a cancer, have captured the speech and the political agenda in all States, tightening border controls, imposing restrictions on immigration, making family reunification and restricting access to social services, health and education. Worse, as in the case of Thilo Sarrazin in Germany, some have already crossed the line into xenophobia to enter fully into a racist discourse about the inferiority of the intelligence of Muslims, which is dangerously reminiscent of the characterization that Nazis did to Jews, blacks and Slavs as "untermenschen (inferior human beings.) The result is that Today, amid the economic crisis, the values \u200b\u200bof tolerance and openness that are the most important assets we have are at issue, or beat a retreat.
All this aversion to foreign surprising for a Europe whose problems at all can be attributed to immigrants. Quite the contrary, barring a change in demographic trends, in addition to moral suicide posed by dominant attitudes toward immigration today in most of Europe, Europeans are directed toward economic suicide, since with the current rates birth population of working age will be increasingly marginalized and have to cope with increased social spending to support a dependent population and aging. Europe should look in the mirror U.S., capable of integrating immigrants from all over the world and get to contribute to the common welfare while at the same, but instead prefer to create a false problem, and around it, build solutions that will only accelerate their decline.
A lot of good people, mental slapstick and silliness of racism and xenophobia prevents them from taking them seriously. However, its ability to condition the traditional parties is just remarkable and growing. Every time one of them capture the government of a Member State, its agenda illegitimating, racist and anti-European full impact on European institutions and carries them forward. To prevent this, as is to punish those who breach the deficit criteria, the other governments should dare to resort to the treaties and punish the xenophobic and authoritarian. Unfortunately, the tepid response of European governments and institutions with the expulsion of Romanian Gypsies in France, against the excesses of freedom of the press of the Hungarian or in connection with the harassment of undocumented migrants in Italy anticipate how little we expected of them when it comes to dealing with other governments.
3. The end of solidarity
is said that the economic crisis is to blame, but not quite true. The main risk of rupture of the European project is not from the crisis itself: the final analysis, Europe has been in crisis in the past and emerged stronger from them. Given the crisis of the eighties, pushed by the technological strength of Japan and the United States, European governments decided to make a qualitative leap in the integration. So European leaders clearly displayed what was then called "the cost of non-Europe", ie, wealth and welfare that could be created by removing all obstacles that slow economic growth.
Today, all serious and intractable challenges that are looming over the economy Europe (especially in terms of aging and loss of competitiveness), there is broad consensus on how to overcome these problems. The question must then be sought elsewhere: in the existence of irreconcilable readings on how to enter the euro crisis and, consequently, how we leave it. For some, led by Germany, we face a crisis that originates in the fiscal irresponsibility of some states. This means that out of the crisis, these States simply have to follow the rules of austerity which were in force and have now been strengthened. All this is accompanied by a preachy moralizing and condescending, as if the deficit or surplus reflect a country's moral superiority or inferiority of an entire human community. Many want a two-speed Europe, but not based on merit, but on cultural and religious stereotypes: first class, sparing the righteous Protestant, in the second, Catholic expenditurea one of which can not be trusted and which must be kept at bay or even, if necessary, throw out.
This narrative of the crisis, which is on track to finish Europe, must be answered. That countries as diverse as Greece and the rich poor Ireland, the first champion of corporatist interventionism and the second of neoliberalism and deregulation, are in similar situations requires more sophisticated explanations. We are facing a growing crisis, logic in a process of building a monetary union where the existence of a single monetary policy, not adequately complemented by fiscal and financial sector regulation, is generating imbalances accumulate to cause problems we see today. Given that attitude, since the monetary union was designed without taking into account the mechanisms necessary to enable it to weather the current crisis, it seems logical to discuss how to perfect this union to function in a balanced and, as seems necessary, to improve its governance equipping new instruments and strengthening the authority of their institutions.
But instead of taking the path of deepening of the union, what we are seeing is the application of a logic of winners and losers in which some take advantage of the situation to impose on others its economic model, as if all countries had the same conditions and could operate under the same assumptions. The consequence of this is that in the absence of more ambitious measures, we will settle in a permanent crisis. Meanwhile, the adjustments and cuts associated with the current rescue plans will deepen the crisis faced by some countries rather than helping them out of it. For this path, the damage is inevitable, because if growth and employment do not appear soon, companies will rebel against the adjustments and the excessive burden of debt or, alternatively, markets and creditor governments will coordinate to drive the euro zone or quarantine countries insolvency problems. If this continues, the European Union for many Europeans will end up being what the International Monetary Fund was for many Asian and Latin American countries in the eighties and nineties: a tool for imposing economic ideology will lack legitimacy, but which will obey in the absence of other alternatives. It may even work, but that Europe will not be a draft political, economic or social, but simply a regulatory agency responsible for ensuring macroeconomic stability, quite rightly, will suffer a serious democratic deficit and identity.
4.
absent from the world as serious as the breakdown of domestic consensus is Europe's inability to speak and act with one voice in the twenty-first century world. Despite being the first economic and trading bloc in the world, the largest donor of development aid in the world, and even, despite the cuts, to continue to have a very significant military and security apparatus, Europe continues to exercise its power of fragmented and, consequently, as we see every day, from relations with United States, Russia and China to its performance in the immediate vicinity more Mediterranean, in a highly ineffective. It is clear that no European power is comparable to that of a great power and it wants to exercise the way they do them. The problem is that Europe can not be united and decisive action even in those geographic areas nearby, such as the Mediterranean, where its weight is or should be overwhelming, nor is influential or effective in institutions like the UN the G-20, the IMF where his political and economic weight is huge. In all of these multilateral institutions, there are many Europeans, but little Europe, and even worse, very few policies that match their interests.
More than a year after the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty, which promised a new and more effective foreign policy, the paralysis of European external action is complete. The response to the Arab revolution has undoubtedly been the straw that broke the glass. For decades, in exchange for putting their interests unless immigration, energy and security, Europe has supported the continuation of a series of authoritarian and corrupt regimes, gladly ignoring the promotion of democratic values \u200b\u200band respect for human rights. But when, finally, without any external support, the people of the region have taken their destiny in their hands, Europe's response has been slow, timid and Racan, showing much more concerned leaders to safeguard their economic interests and control of migration flows that support democratic change. Here also imposed myopia, as in case of success the Arab revolution, the economic dividend of democratization will be so immense that darken any calculation on the costs of turbulence.
true that Europe has avoided the pit which would have let Qaddafi assaulted Benghazi. This would have pushed back the European clock to the time of Srebrenica and led to irreparable moral and political crisis. But make no mistake, in the Libyan crisis, as the crisis of the euro, after avoiding the abyss is absolutely everything to do: in addition to achieving a peace that is not a factual rendition perpetuate the Gaddafi regime, Europe must restore the credibility of its military capability , which has been compromised and its security institutions and foreign policy, which have been battered. Frustration with these new foreign policy institutions, especially the role of permanent Council president, Herman Van Rompuy, the High Representative for Foreign Policy, Catherine Ashton, and the new European External Action Service (EEAS) is so comprehensive European capitals have begun to disengage from these institutions and coordinate and work on their own. Paradoxically, where we expect a fusion of European and national interests in Brussels and the capitals, we now have an increasingly complete fracture on the one hand, a European foreign policy merely declaratory and without any force, and secondly, a series of policies that work in fits and starts based on coalitions of volunteers and national resources exclusively. Arabic
If spring had completed quickly and happily, the weakness of Europe would have ended up being invisible. But if what lies ahead, as seems to be the case, is a road to democracy very bumpy partial victories and defeats, twists and turns and enough instability and uncertainty, this Europe is divided, will be unable to influence and be doomed to irrelevance outside. With no role in the Middle East, a Turkish humiliated by blocking its membership and abandoned to their fate Mediterranean, Europe will cease being a credible foreign policy actor.
5. The revolt of the elites
For years, the European project has progressed on the basis of an implicit consensus between citizens and elites about the benefits of the integration process. This consensus has been broken by both sides. On the one hand, citizens have removed the blank check that had granted to the European institutions to govern, the way of enlightened despotism, "for the people but without the people." Over time, the integration process has touched the heartstrings of national identity, especially as regards the welfare state and social policies. The economic bias, liberal and deregulation of European construction has been completed and ideologize politicize a process that previously thought it to be in the hands of experts and bureaucrats. But more surprising and unexpected, this revolt of the masses has added what might be termed as the "revolt of the elites."
Germany is perhaps the clearest example of this phenomenon. According to recent surveys, 63% of Germans have lost confidence in Europe and 53% do not see the future of Germany linked to it. But the elite side, things are very different: while exports to China are about to exceed exports to France, southern Europe is seen as an obstacle that hampers their growth. European commitment memory fades with generational change: only 38 of 662 MPs took their seats in 1989. Without a doubt, this is a new Germany. Given its size and importance, any change in Germany has a profound impact on European integration. However, as the key feature of the new Germany is the distrust towards the European Union, rather than, as it did in the past, export your trust to others, what you are doing is to export their distrust. An essential part of the European engine is therefore galling, but there is no alternative to replace it. France can survive economically German lack of faith, and even with the UK plug the holes left Germany in foreign policy, but it is clear that Europe will not advance without a Germany fully committed to European integration.
In the absence of German leadership and alternatives to this, the integration process is fraying. The presidents of the Commission José Manuel Barroso Council, Herman Van Rompuy, and the High Representative for Foreign Policy, Catherine Ashton, wandering lost in the mist European incapable of articulate speech that they at least contact with the Europeans who still believe in this project. Parliament only occasionally rises conscience, up dikes against the excesses of populist and xenophobic and seeks to advance the integration process. However, only a few MEPs have a voice and are willing to turn against their governments and national parties when necessary. In Germany, France and Italy but also in many other places, we are faced with the generation of top leaders shortsighted and delivered to electioneering: among them, no one speaks for Europe and for Europe.
EPILOGUE: Can you break
Europe?
Every day that passes, the feeling that Europe is more real cracks and is more justified. Can you break Europe? The answer is obvious: yes, of course you can. In the final analysis, the European Union is a human construct, not a celestial body. Necessary and beneficial justifies its existence, but not prevent it disappears. Like a set of favorable circumstances led fairly risky to launch this major project, the linking of a series of adverse circumstances it may well disappear, especially if those who have the responsibility to defend cease to exercise their responsibilities. Many Europeans involved are aware of the danger that Europe's real throw away, and are extremely concerned by the turn of events. However, while feeding the fear that pessimism advisories could accelerate the process of rupture. But when day after day we see the red lines of decency and values \u200b\u200bthat Europe plays are crossed by chauvinistic politicians that encourage unscrupulous people's fears, it is impossible to keep looking the other way. Displaying the clarity of ideas and the determination with which the anti-Europeans pursue their goals, hard to think that the mere optimism alone will be enough to save Europe from the ghosts of the stubbornness, selfishness, solidarity and xenophobia that threaten these days. Without a determination and clarity of ideas equivalent on this side, Europe will fail. -
José Ignacio Torreblanca
The crisis of values, the confidence, the euro, the policy exterior and leadership: a few times in its history the European project has been so in entredicho.Dinamarca reintroduced border controls under the guise of a crime nonexistent. With this, the country was a model of democracy, tolerance and social justice is at the forefront of European surrender to fear and xenophobia. Greece has more than a year to the edge without seeming to be many governments to mourn his eventual exit from the euro area, some even secretly stoke markets against Athens. Finland resisted until the last minute, behind Slovakia, to finance the rescue of Portugal. France and Italy take advantage of the Tunisian crisis in election period, limiting the freedom of movement within the European Union. And what about Germany, not content with managing the crisis in the euro to hit regional elections, breaks ranks with France and the United Kingdom in the Security Council United Nations, it disregards the Libyan crisis and busting ten years of European security policy.
European leaders govern coup polls and elections, although it surprised rid Europe Today
remember the admiration and even raised the fear that Europe ten years ago between major powers
Like a cancer, the xenophobes have been capturing discourse and the political agenda in all States foreign
aversion leads to the Europeans to commit suicide not only moral but economic
adjustments and cuts associated with the current bailouts worsen the crisis faced by some countries
this continues, the EU will end up being what was once the IMF for many: an instrument of taxation
With the euro's future into question and the Arab world to erupt, European leaders govern hit Surveys and elections, clinging to power by any means, even if it means having to undo the Europe that so much time and sacrifice it cost to build. Rarely has the European project has been so compromised and so publicly exposed their genitals. It seems that in this Europe of today, have a big party was forced xenophobic. The fact is that Europe cracks. In the absence of a radical change, the integration process could collapse, leaving the air the future of Europe as an economic and politically relevant.
1. A project without bellows
This crisis is temporary and transitory: this is not a bad run, or are victims of unfounded pessimism. To realize how far the integration project is in danger not rewind it takes more than a decade. If we did, the contrast with the current situation could not be more revealing. After launching the euro on January 1, 1999, the European Union approved the Lisbon Strategy, which promised to make the EU the most dynamic, competitive and sustainable economy. Also committed to expand the area of \u200b\u200bfreedom, security and justice, European integration leading to the police, judicial and immigration, which until then had been left out of European construction. And to complete this process and give itself a real political union that would allow it to be a significant global player in the world of the twenty-first century, set in motion the process of drafting the European Constitution.
But the EU is not completed only inside but also out: launching the most ambitious enlargement process of history, incorporating into its ranks 10 countries in Central and Eastern Europe plus Cyprus and Malta and, in an act full strategic vision and future, agreed to open accession negotiations with Turkey, thereby tending bridges of maximum value with the Arab and Muslim world. At the same time lay the foundations of a genuine common foreign and security: after years of helplessness and humiliation in the small Bosnian, French and British agreed to coordinate their defense more closely. Meanwhile, Europeans are united, including Germany, to a halt Milosevic's attempts to ethnically cleanse Kosovo and pledged to set up a rapid reaction force of 60,000 soldiers who were capable of being deployed outside the European act in crisis management missions and peacekeeping. Used today by the major powers ninguneo remember how surprised, then, with the euro in hand, the extensions in place, a constitution just around the corner and a common foreign and security filled with the leadership provided by Javier Solana, Europe did not cause boredom or indifference, but admiration, and even in Washington, Beijing or Moscow, undisguised suspicion.
A decade later, this brilliant list of achievements and promises is more optimistic in question: for the successful European and world we promised, we have a Europe that despite the extensions has diminished, and that although the euro has become selfish and unsupportive and that has ceased to believe and practice their values \u200b\u200bto lock in the fear of foreigners and fear of loss of identity. Many regret having made the extensions and do not want to hear about them, or raise fulfill the promise of membership to Turkey and are not even able to glimpse the accession of the Balkan countries. More than twenty years since the fall of the Berlin Wall are a time frame more than reasonable for Europe was complete, inside and out. But the reality is quite different: after the expansion, we are talking about enlargement fatigue; after the failed constitutional process, fatigue political integration after the crisis of the euro, economic and financial fatigue. After ten years of institutional reforms and institutional introspection, the Lisbon Treaty, which was to save Europe from the paralysis and place it in the twenty first century is a perfect stranger and achievements invisible.
2. Crisis of political myopia valoresy
The seriousness of the current European crisis arises from the confluence of several centrifugal forces: the rise of xenophobia, the crisis of the euro, the deficit of foreign policy and lack of leadership. His themes are parallel but intersect dangerously same denominator common: the absence of a long-term. The result is that each difference between partners, whether the character is, it becomes a zero sum game, in a fierce fight where anything goes as long as a victory to brag with once back in national capital for small and harmful to the common plan is.
now almost three years ago that the smoke that burned Gypsy camps in Italy put us on notice of what was coming. Since then, election after election, the xenophobes have been gaining strength in new countries (Sweden, Finland, United Kingdom, Hungary) and consolidated at the sites where it already had a significant presence (Italy, France, Netherlands, Denmark). Like a cancer, have captured the speech and the political agenda in all States, tightening border controls, imposing restrictions on immigration, making family reunification and restricting access to social services, health and education. Worse, as in the case of Thilo Sarrazin in Germany, some have already crossed the line into xenophobia to enter fully into a racist discourse about the inferiority of the intelligence of Muslims, which is dangerously reminiscent of the characterization that Nazis did to Jews, blacks and Slavs as "untermenschen (inferior human beings.) The result is that Today, amid the economic crisis, the values \u200b\u200bof tolerance and openness that are the most important assets we have are at issue, or beat a retreat.
All this aversion to foreign surprising for a Europe whose problems at all can be attributed to immigrants. Quite the contrary, barring a change in demographic trends, in addition to moral suicide posed by dominant attitudes toward immigration today in most of Europe, Europeans are directed toward economic suicide, since with the current rates birth population of working age will be increasingly marginalized and have to cope with increased social spending to support a dependent population and aging. Europe should look in the mirror U.S., capable of integrating immigrants from all over the world and get to contribute to the common welfare while at the same, but instead prefer to create a false problem, and around it, build solutions that will only accelerate their decline.
A lot of good people, mental slapstick and silliness of racism and xenophobia prevents them from taking them seriously. However, its ability to condition the traditional parties is just remarkable and growing. Every time one of them capture the government of a Member State, its agenda illegitimating, racist and anti-European full impact on European institutions and carries them forward. To prevent this, as is to punish those who breach the deficit criteria, the other governments should dare to resort to the treaties and punish the xenophobic and authoritarian. Unfortunately, the tepid response of European governments and institutions with the expulsion of Romanian Gypsies in France, against the excesses of freedom of the press of the Hungarian or in connection with the harassment of undocumented migrants in Italy anticipate how little we expected of them when it comes to dealing with other governments.
3. The end of solidarity
is said that the economic crisis is to blame, but not quite true. The main risk of rupture of the European project is not from the crisis itself: the final analysis, Europe has been in crisis in the past and emerged stronger from them. Given the crisis of the eighties, pushed by the technological strength of Japan and the United States, European governments decided to make a qualitative leap in the integration. So European leaders clearly displayed what was then called "the cost of non-Europe", ie, wealth and welfare that could be created by removing all obstacles that slow economic growth.
Today, all serious and intractable challenges that are looming over the economy Europe (especially in terms of aging and loss of competitiveness), there is broad consensus on how to overcome these problems. The question must then be sought elsewhere: in the existence of irreconcilable readings on how to enter the euro crisis and, consequently, how we leave it. For some, led by Germany, we face a crisis that originates in the fiscal irresponsibility of some states. This means that out of the crisis, these States simply have to follow the rules of austerity which were in force and have now been strengthened. All this is accompanied by a preachy moralizing and condescending, as if the deficit or surplus reflect a country's moral superiority or inferiority of an entire human community. Many want a two-speed Europe, but not based on merit, but on cultural and religious stereotypes: first class, sparing the righteous Protestant, in the second, Catholic expenditurea one of which can not be trusted and which must be kept at bay or even, if necessary, throw out.
This narrative of the crisis, which is on track to finish Europe, must be answered. That countries as diverse as Greece and the rich poor Ireland, the first champion of corporatist interventionism and the second of neoliberalism and deregulation, are in similar situations requires more sophisticated explanations. We are facing a growing crisis, logic in a process of building a monetary union where the existence of a single monetary policy, not adequately complemented by fiscal and financial sector regulation, is generating imbalances accumulate to cause problems we see today. Given that attitude, since the monetary union was designed without taking into account the mechanisms necessary to enable it to weather the current crisis, it seems logical to discuss how to perfect this union to function in a balanced and, as seems necessary, to improve its governance equipping new instruments and strengthening the authority of their institutions.
But instead of taking the path of deepening of the union, what we are seeing is the application of a logic of winners and losers in which some take advantage of the situation to impose on others its economic model, as if all countries had the same conditions and could operate under the same assumptions. The consequence of this is that in the absence of more ambitious measures, we will settle in a permanent crisis. Meanwhile, the adjustments and cuts associated with the current rescue plans will deepen the crisis faced by some countries rather than helping them out of it. For this path, the damage is inevitable, because if growth and employment do not appear soon, companies will rebel against the adjustments and the excessive burden of debt or, alternatively, markets and creditor governments will coordinate to drive the euro zone or quarantine countries insolvency problems. If this continues, the European Union for many Europeans will end up being what the International Monetary Fund was for many Asian and Latin American countries in the eighties and nineties: a tool for imposing economic ideology will lack legitimacy, but which will obey in the absence of other alternatives. It may even work, but that Europe will not be a draft political, economic or social, but simply a regulatory agency responsible for ensuring macroeconomic stability, quite rightly, will suffer a serious democratic deficit and identity.
4.
absent from the world as serious as the breakdown of domestic consensus is Europe's inability to speak and act with one voice in the twenty-first century world. Despite being the first economic and trading bloc in the world, the largest donor of development aid in the world, and even, despite the cuts, to continue to have a very significant military and security apparatus, Europe continues to exercise its power of fragmented and, consequently, as we see every day, from relations with United States, Russia and China to its performance in the immediate vicinity more Mediterranean, in a highly ineffective. It is clear that no European power is comparable to that of a great power and it wants to exercise the way they do them. The problem is that Europe can not be united and decisive action even in those geographic areas nearby, such as the Mediterranean, where its weight is or should be overwhelming, nor is influential or effective in institutions like the UN the G-20, the IMF where his political and economic weight is huge. In all of these multilateral institutions, there are many Europeans, but little Europe, and even worse, very few policies that match their interests.
More than a year after the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty, which promised a new and more effective foreign policy, the paralysis of European external action is complete. The response to the Arab revolution has undoubtedly been the straw that broke the glass. For decades, in exchange for putting their interests unless immigration, energy and security, Europe has supported the continuation of a series of authoritarian and corrupt regimes, gladly ignoring the promotion of democratic values \u200b\u200band respect for human rights. But when, finally, without any external support, the people of the region have taken their destiny in their hands, Europe's response has been slow, timid and Racan, showing much more concerned leaders to safeguard their economic interests and control of migration flows that support democratic change. Here also imposed myopia, as in case of success the Arab revolution, the economic dividend of democratization will be so immense that darken any calculation on the costs of turbulence.
true that Europe has avoided the pit which would have let Qaddafi assaulted Benghazi. This would have pushed back the European clock to the time of Srebrenica and led to irreparable moral and political crisis. But make no mistake, in the Libyan crisis, as the crisis of the euro, after avoiding the abyss is absolutely everything to do: in addition to achieving a peace that is not a factual rendition perpetuate the Gaddafi regime, Europe must restore the credibility of its military capability , which has been compromised and its security institutions and foreign policy, which have been battered. Frustration with these new foreign policy institutions, especially the role of permanent Council president, Herman Van Rompuy, the High Representative for Foreign Policy, Catherine Ashton, and the new European External Action Service (EEAS) is so comprehensive European capitals have begun to disengage from these institutions and coordinate and work on their own. Paradoxically, where we expect a fusion of European and national interests in Brussels and the capitals, we now have an increasingly complete fracture on the one hand, a European foreign policy merely declaratory and without any force, and secondly, a series of policies that work in fits and starts based on coalitions of volunteers and national resources exclusively. Arabic
If spring had completed quickly and happily, the weakness of Europe would have ended up being invisible. But if what lies ahead, as seems to be the case, is a road to democracy very bumpy partial victories and defeats, twists and turns and enough instability and uncertainty, this Europe is divided, will be unable to influence and be doomed to irrelevance outside. With no role in the Middle East, a Turkish humiliated by blocking its membership and abandoned to their fate Mediterranean, Europe will cease being a credible foreign policy actor.
5. The revolt of the elites
For years, the European project has progressed on the basis of an implicit consensus between citizens and elites about the benefits of the integration process. This consensus has been broken by both sides. On the one hand, citizens have removed the blank check that had granted to the European institutions to govern, the way of enlightened despotism, "for the people but without the people." Over time, the integration process has touched the heartstrings of national identity, especially as regards the welfare state and social policies. The economic bias, liberal and deregulation of European construction has been completed and ideologize politicize a process that previously thought it to be in the hands of experts and bureaucrats. But more surprising and unexpected, this revolt of the masses has added what might be termed as the "revolt of the elites."
Germany is perhaps the clearest example of this phenomenon. According to recent surveys, 63% of Germans have lost confidence in Europe and 53% do not see the future of Germany linked to it. But the elite side, things are very different: while exports to China are about to exceed exports to France, southern Europe is seen as an obstacle that hampers their growth. European commitment memory fades with generational change: only 38 of 662 MPs took their seats in 1989. Without a doubt, this is a new Germany. Given its size and importance, any change in Germany has a profound impact on European integration. However, as the key feature of the new Germany is the distrust towards the European Union, rather than, as it did in the past, export your trust to others, what you are doing is to export their distrust. An essential part of the European engine is therefore galling, but there is no alternative to replace it. France can survive economically German lack of faith, and even with the UK plug the holes left Germany in foreign policy, but it is clear that Europe will not advance without a Germany fully committed to European integration.
In the absence of German leadership and alternatives to this, the integration process is fraying. The presidents of the Commission José Manuel Barroso Council, Herman Van Rompuy, and the High Representative for Foreign Policy, Catherine Ashton, wandering lost in the mist European incapable of articulate speech that they at least contact with the Europeans who still believe in this project. Parliament only occasionally rises conscience, up dikes against the excesses of populist and xenophobic and seeks to advance the integration process. However, only a few MEPs have a voice and are willing to turn against their governments and national parties when necessary. In Germany, France and Italy but also in many other places, we are faced with the generation of top leaders shortsighted and delivered to electioneering: among them, no one speaks for Europe and for Europe.
EPILOGUE: Can you break
Europe?
Every day that passes, the feeling that Europe is more real cracks and is more justified. Can you break Europe? The answer is obvious: yes, of course you can. In the final analysis, the European Union is a human construct, not a celestial body. Necessary and beneficial justifies its existence, but not prevent it disappears. Like a set of favorable circumstances led fairly risky to launch this major project, the linking of a series of adverse circumstances it may well disappear, especially if those who have the responsibility to defend cease to exercise their responsibilities. Many Europeans involved are aware of the danger that Europe's real throw away, and are extremely concerned by the turn of events. However, while feeding the fear that pessimism advisories could accelerate the process of rupture. But when day after day we see the red lines of decency and values \u200b\u200bthat Europe plays are crossed by chauvinistic politicians that encourage unscrupulous people's fears, it is impossible to keep looking the other way. Displaying the clarity of ideas and the determination with which the anti-Europeans pursue their goals, hard to think that the mere optimism alone will be enough to save Europe from the ghosts of the stubbornness, selfishness, solidarity and xenophobia that threaten these days. Without a determination and clarity of ideas equivalent on this side, Europe will fail. -
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